??? ?????? ?? Excel

???? ??? ??????? ?????? ?? Microsoft Excel. ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ??????? ??????. ????? ??? ?????? ????? ????? FORECAST ?? Microsoft Office Excel 2003 ??? ????????? ??????? ?? Excel ???? ????? FORECAST ?? ??????? Excel ???????.

???? ?????? FORECAST (x known_y 's ? known_x 's) ???????? ???? ??????? ?????? (????? ?? ???????? ?????? known_y 's) ????? ????? x ????? ????? (????? ?? ???????? ?????? known_x 's) ?????? ??????? ?????? ??? ?????? (?????? ?????? ?????? ????????) ???? ?????? ??? ? ?? ??? ?.

??? ??? ?? ??? ????? ???????? ?? ??? ????? ?? x ????? ???? ??? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ? ??? ? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? FORECAST ?????? ?? ???????? ?????? ???? ??? ???? ????? x ??? ?????? ??????. FORECAST ?? ???? y ???? ?????? ???????? ??? ?? ???? x ? ?? ???????? (???? ?????? ???????? ? ??????? ???? ?????? ???? ???????? Excel ????? SLOPE ? ????? ??????? ?????? ??).

???? ??????

??????? ??? ?? ???? x ???? ????? ? ??? ?? ???? known_y 's ?known_x 's ????? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ????? ????? ??? ???????? ???????.

?????? ????????? ?????? ?????? FORECAST ???? x ???? ???????? ??? 2 ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ????? ??? ????????? ??? FORECAST (125, A1: A100, B1:B100).

???? ??? ?????????

?????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???????:

1. ????? ???? ??? Excel ????? ?? ?? ???? ?????? ??????.
   ?? ??? ??????????? ??? ??????

   ??? y (?)	??? ?
   1	= 3 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3		????? ?? 10 ??? ????? ??? ????????
   2	= 4 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3		0
   3	= 2 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3		x ????????
   4	= 5 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3		6
   5	= 4 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3		x ???? ?? ??????? + ?????? 10
   6	= 7 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3		= d5 + 10 ^ D $ $ 3
   =slope(a2:a7,b2:b7)			Excel 2002 ?????????? ???????
   =intercept(a2:a7,b2:b7)			??? D3 = 7.5
   =forecast(d7,a2:a7,b2:b7)			4.875
   = a10 + a9 * d7			??? D3 = 8
   			# DIV/0!

2. ??? ?????? A1 ?? ???? ??? Excel ????? ?? ?? ???? ????????? ???? ???? ?????? A1:D13 ??????? ?? ???? ??? Excel.
3. ???? ??? ???? ?????? ????? ? ?? ???? ??? ????? "????? ??????". ?? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ?????? ??? ????????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?? ????? Excel ???? ???? ???????:
   • ?? Microsoft Office Excel 2007? ???? ??? ????? ??????? ?????? ???????? ???? ??? ????? ?? ???????? ????? ?? ?? ???? ??? ??? ?????? AutoFix.
   • ?? Excel 2003 ??? ????????? ??????? ?? Excel ??? ??? ???? ?? ??????? ????? ?? ???? ??? ?????? ?????? ???????.

?????? ?? ???? ?? ????? ??????? B2: B7 ???? ?? ??????? ??????? 0 ? A9:D13 ??????? ???? ????? ????? 6.

????? A2:A7 ??????? B2: B7 ??? ?? ?? ??? y ? x-????? ????????? ?? ??????? FORECAST ?? ?????? A10. ???? x ?? ?????? D7.

??? ??? ???? ????? Excel ???? ?? Excel 2003 ?? ????? FORECAST ????? ?????? ????? ?? ????????? ???????. ?? ????? ??? ?????? FORECAST ??????? Excel 2003 ??? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel. FORECAST (x known_y 's ? known_x 's) ?? ????? ??? ?????? ????? ??? ????? ??????? ??????:????? ?? ??? ????? ??? FORECAST ?????? ??????? Excel 2003 ??? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel, ???? FORECAST ????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ???. ??? INTERCEPT ?? ????? ?????? ????? ???? ??? ????? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ?????.

?? ??????? Excel ???? ???? ????? Excel 2003 ? ?? ????? FORECAST ?????? ????? ?????. ??? ??? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ?? ?? ????????? ?? B2: B7 ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? x ?? ??? ?????, ??? ?? ?? ???? ???? FORECAST. ??? ??? ???? ????? x, y ????? ?? x ??? ?????? ?????? ? ?? y ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ??? ?????? ???????? ??? ??? ??? ?????? ???? ????? ??? ???? x. ??? ??? x ????? ??? ?????? ???? ??????? ? ??? ?? ???? ???? FORECAST ??? ?????. ?? ???? ???? ?? ???????? ?????? ???? ????? ???. ??? ????? ?? ???? ????? ???????? shifted ??????? ??????.

?? ?????? ?????????? 0 ?? D3 ?? A9 ????? 0.775280899. ??????? ??? ??? A10:A11 INTERCEPT ? FORECAST. ????? ?????? A12 ??? ??????? ?????? ???? ??? ?????? ??? ???? FORECAST:????? ????? ?? ??????? A11 A12 ???? ????? ???? ??? ?????? ?? A12 ?????? ?? ??????. ??? ?? ?? ????? ????? ???? ???? ?????? ????? ????? ?????? ??? known_x 's.

??? ??? ?????? ?????? ?? D3 ???? ???? ???? ??? B2: B7 ?? ??? ????? ??? ???? ??? ??? ??????? ?????? FORECAST. ??? ??? D3 < = 7? ?? ?????? ????? ????? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ??????? ????? ?????? ?? ???. ????? ????? INTERCEPT ? FORECAST well-behaved. ???? ????? ?????? ?? D3 ??? 7.25 7.5 7.75 ?8. ?????? ???? ??? ?? A9. ???? ??? ????????? ?? ????? ?? ??????? A11:A12. ??? ?? ??? ??? ????? ???? ?? ???? ????? ???????.

??????? ????? D7:D13 ????? ???? ??? ??????? ?????? FORECAST ?????? ???? ??? ?? ???? ???? ?? ??????? ?????? FORECAST ??? ????? (? INTERCEPT) ?? ?????. ??? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ??? D3 = 7.5 ?8 ??? ???????.

???? ?? ????? - ????? ????? ????? ??????? ???? ?????? ??? 0 ??? D3 = 8.

????????? ??????? ?? Excel ???? ?????? ??? ????? ?? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ????? ?????? ????? profound ???? ?? ?????? ???????? ????????? ?? ??? ??? ?????????. ?? ???? ? ?? ???? ??? ??????? ????????? ?? ??? ??????? ?? extreme.

??? ??? ???? Excel 2003 ?? ????? ???? ?? Excel ?? ???? ??? ??????? ?? ????? ??????? ?? A11 A12 ??? ????? ????? ???????. ??? ???? D7:D13 ??????? ????? ??????? ?????? ????? ???? ?? ???? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? Excel.

??????? ?? ??????? Excel ???????

???? ??????? ????? ?????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????? ?? ??????? Excel ???????. ????? ???? ???? ??? ??? ????????. ??? shortcomings ??? ?? ??? ????????? ??????? ?? Excel ???? FORECAST ????? ???? ????? ?????? ????? ?? ??????? ??????.

??????? ?? Excel 2003 ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel

??? ???? ????? ?? ????? ????? ????? ?? Excel 2003 ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel ? ???? ??? ??? ????? ???? FORECAST. ????? ??? ??????? ?????? ??? ????????. ??? ????? ???? ??????? ??? ??? ?? ???????.

??????

??????? ????? ???? ???? ????? ???????? ???? ??? ?? Excel 2003 ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel ???? ???? ????? ???? ?? ??? ????? ??? ???? ???? FORECAST. ?? ???? ????? Excel 2003 ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel ??????? ??? ??? ?? ??????? ?? ??????? Excel ???????.

??? ???? ????? ??? ??????? ?? ??? ??? ????? ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel ? ??????? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? Excel ?? ??????? ?????? ??? ??????. ???? ??? ??? ???????? ????????? ??????? ???? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ??? ???????. ??????? ???? ?????? ???????? ?? ???? ?? ????????? ??????? ?? Excel ??? ???????? ????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ??????? ???????? ?? ????? ????? ?????? ??? ??? ????????.

?? ????? ????? ????? ?? ????? ?????????? ??????? ??? ????? ???? ?? Excel 2003 ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel. ??????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ???????:

• ???? ?? ????? ??????
• ??? computes ?? ????????
• ??? ?????????? ?????????

??? ??????? ???? ??? ?? ??????? ??????. ?? ????? ???? ????? "??????? ??????" ???? ????? ???? ??? ????? ????????? ?? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ?? ???? ????????. ????? ??????? ?????? ????????? ???????:

• ????? ?? ????? ?????? ???? ????????? ? ??? ?????? ????? ???? ?????????
• ???? ????? ?????? ?? ???? ????????? ???? ((sum of all observations) ^ 2) / ????? ???)

???? ?????? ?? ??????? ???? ?? ????? ??????? Excel 2003 ??? ??? ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel ???? ??? ??????? ??? ??????? ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ????????. ??????? ???????? ???? ????? ?????? ??? ???? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????????? ??????? ??? ??? ???? ??????.

??????? ??????? ?? ????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ?? Excel 2003 ?????????? ??????? ?? Excel ???? ???????:

• var
• varp
• stdev
• stdevp
• dvar
• dvarp
• dstdev
• dstdevp
• ??????
• ?????
• ???????
• pearson
• rsq
• steyx

?? ????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?? ?? ????? ????? ????? ?? ??????? ?? Analysis ToolPak.